i've developed a graph of the "new guild" life cycle on befallen.
as you can see, the beginning is heralded with great and rapid success, but just before they reach the top, there's a series in setbacks as the guild pummels. but, they cling to life even after falling, as evidenced by the slow sloping off at the end. also notice that the guild never dies out, just simply fades away, constantly pushing its recruitment and never quite throwing in the towel. thus, resulting in what is now befallen.